If WAS visited MEM today, our model would lean Memphis Grizzlies with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +16.9 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

4.7

105.8

Offensive Rating

117.2

118.0

Defensive Rating

112.6

101.8

Pace

103.7

WAS (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

WAS wins

2025-12-28 WAS 112 @ MEM 116 MEM W

2025-12-20 WAS 130 @ MEM 122 WAS W

2024-12-08 WAS 140 @ MEM 112 WAS W

2024-11-08 WAS 104 @ MEM 128 MEM W

2024-03-12 WAS 97 @ MEM 109 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score