If WAS visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.3 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

2.1

105.8

Offensive Rating

115.4

118.0

Defensive Rating

113.3

101.8

Pace

100.8

WAS (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

WAS wins

2026-02-20 WAS 118 @ IND 131 IND W

2026-02-19 WAS 105 @ IND 112 IND W

2025-12-14 WAS 108 @ IND 89 WAS W

2025-11-28 WAS 86 @ IND 119 IND W

2025-04-08 WAS 98 @ IND 104 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score