If WAS visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +16.0 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

3.8

105.8

Offensive Rating

118.9

118.0

Defensive Rating

115.1

101.8

Pace

100.7

WAS (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

WAS wins

2026-01-22 WAS 107 @ DEN 97 WAS W

2026-01-17 WAS 115 @ DEN 121 DEN W

2025-03-15 WAS 126 @ DEN 123 WAS W

2024-12-07 WAS 113 @ DEN 122 DEN W

2024-02-22 WAS 110 @ DEN 130 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score