If WAS visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.6 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-1.6

105.8

Offensive Rating

113.2

118.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

101.8

Pace

103.6

WAS (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

WAS wins

2026-04-09 WAS 119 @ CHI 108 WAS W

2026-04-07 WAS 129 @ CHI 98 WAS W

2025-11-22 WAS 120 @ CHI 121 CHI W

2025-04-11 WAS 89 @ CHI 119 CHI W

2025-01-10 WAS 105 @ CHI 138 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score