If WAS visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +21.6 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

9.4

105.8

Offensive Rating

119.5

118.0

Defensive Rating

110.1

101.8

Pace

96.6

WAS (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

WAS wins

2026-03-14 WAS 100 @ BOS 111 BOS W

2025-12-04 WAS 146 @ BOS 101 WAS W

2025-11-05 WAS 107 @ BOS 136 BOS W

2025-04-06 WAS 90 @ BOS 124 BOS W

2024-12-15 WAS 112 @ BOS 98 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score