If WAS visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.1 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-1.1

105.8

Offensive Rating

113.7

118.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

101.8

Pace

103.4

WAS (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

WAS wins

2026-02-26 WAS 96 @ ATL 126 ATL W

2026-02-24 WAS 98 @ ATL 119 ATL W

2025-12-06 WAS 131 @ ATL 116 WAS W

2025-11-25 WAS 113 @ ATL 132 ATL W

2025-02-08 WAS 125 @ ATL 111 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score