If UTA visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.1 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-4.1

110.2

Offensive Rating

109.6

119.4

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.8

Pace

100.6

UTA (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

UTA wins

2026-03-23 UTA 143 @ TOR 127 UTA W

2026-02-01 UTA 100 @ TOR 107 TOR W

2025-03-14 UTA 126 @ TOR 118 UTA W

2025-03-07 UTA 109 @ TOR 118 TOR W

2024-01-12 UTA 113 @ TOR 145 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score