If UTA visited SAC today, our model would lean Sacramento Kings with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.8 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

0.6

110.2

Offensive Rating

115.9

119.4

Defensive Rating

115.3

100.8

Pace

98.9

UTA (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

UTA wins

2026-03-15 UTA 111 @ SAC 116 SAC W

2026-02-11 UTA 93 @ SAC 121 SAC W

2025-11-28 UTA 119 @ SAC 128 SAC W

2025-10-24 UTA 104 @ SAC 105 SAC W

2025-02-26 UTA 118 @ SAC 101 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score