If UTA visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 86.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.0 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-0.2

110.2

Offensive Rating

108.9

119.4

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.8

Pace

96.5

UTA (Away) ORL (Home)

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

UTA wins

2026-02-07 UTA 117 @ ORL 120 ORL W

2025-12-20 UTA 128 @ ORL 127 UTA W

2025-02-01 UTA 99 @ ORL 113 ORL W

2025-01-05 UTA 105 @ ORL 92 UTA W

2024-02-29 UTA 107 @ ORL 115 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

68.1%

All Games

1358 tracked

75.7%

High Conf.

>65% picks

76.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 86.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score