If UTA visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.2 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-9.4

110.2

Offensive Rating

109.7

119.4

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.8

Pace

99.8

UTA (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

UTA wins

2026-04-07 UTA 137 @ NOP 156 NOP W

2026-02-28 UTA 115 @ NOP 105 UTA W

2026-02-26 UTA 129 @ NOP 118 UTA W

2025-03-02 UTA 128 @ NOP 121 UTA W

2025-01-20 UTA 119 @ NOP 123 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score