If UTA visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.6 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

2.4

110.2

Offensive Rating

115.1

119.4

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.8

Pace

99.9

UTA (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

UTA wins

2026-03-19 UTA 96 @ MIL 128 MIL W

2026-03-07 UTA 99 @ MIL 113 MIL W

2025-01-27 UTA 125 @ MIL 110 UTA W

2024-11-07 UTA 100 @ MIL 123 MIL W

2024-02-04 UTA 108 @ MIL 123 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score