If UTA visited MEM today, our model would lean Memphis Grizzlies with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.9 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

4.7

110.2

Offensive Rating

117.2

119.4

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.8

Pace

103.7

UTA (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

UTA wins

2026-04-10 UTA 101 @ MEM 147 MEM W

2026-02-20 UTA 114 @ MEM 123 MEM W

2025-12-23 UTA 137 @ MEM 128 UTA W

2025-12-12 UTA 130 @ MEM 126 UTA W

2025-03-25 UTA 140 @ MEM 103 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score