If UTA visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.4 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

1.2

110.2

Offensive Rating

115.0

119.4

Defensive Rating

113.8

100.8

Pace

98.3

UTA (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

UTA wins

2026-04-12 UTA 107 @ LAL 131 LAL W

2025-12-18 UTA 143 @ LAL 135 UTA W

2025-11-23 UTA 108 @ LAL 106 UTA W

2025-11-18 UTA 126 @ LAL 140 LAL W

2025-02-12 UTA 119 @ LAL 131 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score