If UTA visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.3 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

2.1

110.2

Offensive Rating

115.4

119.4

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.8

Pace

100.8

UTA (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

UTA wins

2026-02-03 UTA 131 @ IND 122 UTA W

2025-11-11 UTA 128 @ IND 152 IND W

2025-04-04 UTA 112 @ IND 140 IND W

2025-02-03 UTA 112 @ IND 111 UTA W

2024-01-15 UTA 105 @ IND 132 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score