If UTA visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.9 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-1.3

110.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

119.4

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.8

Pace

100.2

UTA (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

UTA wins

2026-01-17 UTA 120 @ DAL 138 DAL W

2026-01-15 UTA 122 @ DAL 144 DAL W

2026-01-08 UTA 114 @ DAL 116 DAL W

2025-12-15 UTA 133 @ DAL 140 DAL W

2024-11-30 UTA 106 @ DAL 94 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score