If UTA visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +18.4 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

9.2

110.2

Offensive Rating

121.0

119.4

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.8

Pace

100.3

UTA (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

UTA wins

2026-03-30 UTA 122 @ CLE 113 UTA W

2026-01-12 UTA 123 @ CLE 112 UTA W

2025-03-23 UTA 120 @ CLE 91 UTA W

2024-12-23 UTA 113 @ CLE 124 CLE W

2024-04-02 UTA 129 @ CLE 113 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score