If UTA visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.1 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-1.1

110.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

119.4

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.8

Pace

103.4

UTA (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

UTA wins

2026-02-05 UTA 119 @ ATL 121 ATL W

2025-11-13 UTA 132 @ ATL 122 UTA W

2025-04-06 UTA 134 @ ATL 147 ATL W

2025-01-07 UTA 124 @ ATL 121 UTA W

2024-03-15 UTA 122 @ ATL 124 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score