If TOR visited WAS today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.1 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-12.2

109.6

Offensive Rating

105.8

113.6

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.6

Pace

101.8

TOR (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

TOR wins

2026-02-28 TOR 134 @ WAS 125 TOR W

2025-12-26 TOR 117 @ WAS 138 WAS W

2025-11-21 TOR 110 @ WAS 140 WAS W

2025-03-24 TOR 112 @ WAS 104 TOR W

2025-03-10 TOR 104 @ WAS 119 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score