If TOR visited UTA today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.1 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-9.2

109.6

Offensive Rating

110.2

113.6

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.6

Pace

100.8

TOR (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

TOR wins

2026-03-23 TOR 143 @ UTA 127 TOR W

2026-02-01 TOR 100 @ UTA 107 UTA W

2025-03-14 TOR 126 @ UTA 118 TOR W

2025-03-07 TOR 109 @ UTA 118 UTA W

2024-01-12 TOR 113 @ UTA 145 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score