If TOR visited SAC today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.7 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

0.6

109.6

Offensive Rating

115.9

113.6

Defensive Rating

115.3

100.6

Pace

98.9

TOR (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

TOR wins

2026-04-01 TOR 123 @ SAC 115 TOR W

2026-01-21 TOR 122 @ SAC 109 TOR W

2024-11-06 TOR 107 @ SAC 122 SAC W

2024-11-02 TOR 128 @ SAC 131 SAC W

2024-03-20 TOR 123 @ SAC 89 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score