If TOR visited PHI today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.2 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-6.3

109.6

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.6

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.6

Pace

98.1

TOR (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

TOR wins

2026-01-12 TOR 115 @ PHI 102 TOR W

2026-01-11 TOR 115 @ PHI 116 PHI W

2025-11-19 TOR 121 @ PHI 112 TOR W

2025-11-08 TOR 120 @ PHI 130 PHI W

2025-03-30 TOR 127 @ PHI 109 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score