If TOR visited NOP today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.3 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-9.4

109.6

Offensive Rating

109.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.6

Pace

99.8

TOR (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

TOR wins

2026-03-27 TOR 106 @ NOP 119 NOP W

2026-03-11 TOR 111 @ NOP 122 NOP W

2025-01-27 TOR 104 @ NOP 113 NOP W

2024-11-27 TOR 119 @ NOP 93 TOR W

2024-03-05 TOR 139 @ NOP 98 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score