If TOR visited MIL today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.5 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

2.4

109.6

Offensive Rating

115.1

113.6

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.6

Pace

99.9

TOR (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

TOR wins

2026-02-22 TOR 122 @ MIL 94 TOR W

2025-12-18 TOR 111 @ MIL 105 TOR W

2025-11-04 TOR 100 @ MIL 128 MIL W

2025-10-24 TOR 122 @ MIL 116 TOR W

2025-01-17 TOR 112 @ MIL 130 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score