If TOR visited MEM today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.8 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

4.7

109.6

Offensive Rating

117.2

113.6

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.6

Pace

103.7

TOR (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

TOR wins

2026-04-03 TOR 128 @ MEM 96 TOR W

2025-11-02 TOR 104 @ MEM 117 MEM W

2025-02-05 TOR 138 @ MEM 107 TOR W

2024-12-26 TOR 126 @ MEM 155 MEM W

2024-01-22 TOR 108 @ MEM 100 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score