If TOR visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

2.1

109.6

Offensive Rating

114.6

113.6

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.6

Pace

100.3

TOR (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

TOR wins

2026-03-31 TOR 116 @ DET 127 DET W

2026-03-15 TOR 108 @ DET 119 DET W

2026-02-11 TOR 113 @ DET 95 TOR W

2025-04-04 TOR 117 @ DET 105 TOR W

2025-01-11 TOR 114 @ DET 123 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score