If TOR visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.0 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-9.1

109.6

Offensive Rating

106.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.6

Pace

98.2

TOR (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

TOR wins

2026-01-07 TOR 97 @ CHA 96 TOR W

2025-12-05 TOR 111 @ CHA 86 TOR W

2025-11-29 TOR 111 @ CHA 118 CHA W

2025-11-17 TOR 108 @ CHA 110 CHA W

2025-04-09 TOR 96 @ CHA 126 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score