If TOR visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 70.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.5 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

9.4

109.6

Offensive Rating

119.5

113.6

Defensive Rating

110.1

100.6

Pace

96.6

TOR (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

TOR wins

2026-04-05 TOR 101 @ BOS 115 BOS W

2026-01-09 TOR 117 @ BOS 125 BOS W

2025-12-20 TOR 112 @ BOS 96 TOR W

2025-12-07 TOR 121 @ BOS 113 TOR W

2025-02-25 TOR 111 @ BOS 101 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 70.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score