If TOR visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.0 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-1.1

109.6

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.6

Pace

103.4

TOR (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

TOR wins

2026-01-05 TOR 100 @ ATL 118 ATL W

2026-01-03 TOR 117 @ ATL 134 ATL W

2025-11-07 TOR 109 @ ATL 97 TOR W

2025-10-22 TOR 138 @ ATL 118 TOR W

2025-01-25 TOR 117 @ ATL 94 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score