If SAS visited WAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.4 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-12.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

105.8

116.3

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.1

Pace

101.8

SAS (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

SAS wins

2025-12-21 SAS 124 @ WAS 113 SAS W

2025-12-18 SAS 94 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-02-10 SAS 131 @ WAS 121 SAS W

2024-11-13 SAS 130 @ WAS 139 WAS W

2024-01-29 SAS 118 @ WAS 113 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score