If SAS visited POR today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.1 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-2.7

113.5

Offensive Rating

111.0

116.3

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.1

Pace

99.5

SAS (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

SAS wins

2026-04-28 SAS 95 @ POR 114 POR W

2026-04-26 SAS 114 @ POR 93 SAS W

2026-04-24 SAS 120 @ POR 108 SAS W

2026-04-21 SAS 106 @ POR 103 SAS W

2026-04-19 SAS 98 @ POR 111 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score