If SAS visited PHX today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-3.0

113.5

Offensive Rating

114.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.1

Pace

98.3

SAS (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

SAS wins

2026-03-19 SAS 100 @ PHX 101 PHX W

2026-02-19 SAS 94 @ PHX 121 PHX W

2025-11-23 SAS 102 @ PHX 111 PHX W

2025-11-02 SAS 118 @ PHX 130 PHX W

2025-04-11 SAS 98 @ PHX 117 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score