If SAS visited ORL today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.6 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-0.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

108.9

116.3

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.1

Pace

96.5

SAS (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

SAS wins

2026-02-01 SAS 103 @ ORL 112 ORL W

2025-12-03 SAS 114 @ ORL 112 SAS W

2025-04-01 SAS 116 @ ORL 105 SAS W

2025-02-08 SAS 111 @ ORL 112 ORL W

2024-02-08 SAS 111 @ ORL 127 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score