If SAS visited NOP today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.6 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-9.4

113.5

Offensive Rating

109.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.1

Pace

99.8

SAS (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

SAS wins

2026-01-25 SAS 104 @ NOP 95 SAS W

2025-12-08 SAS 135 @ NOP 132 SAS W

2025-11-08 SAS 119 @ NOP 126 NOP W

2025-10-24 SAS 120 @ NOP 116 SAS W

2025-03-15 SAS 115 @ NOP 119 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score