If SAS visited MIN today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 69.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.8 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

5.0

113.5

Offensive Rating

115.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

110.8

100.1

Pace

98.0

SAS (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

SAS wins

2026-05-15 SAS 139 @ MIN 109 SAS W

2026-05-12 SAS 97 @ MIN 126 MIN W

2026-05-10 SAS 109 @ MIN 114 MIN W

2026-05-08 SAS 115 @ MIN 108 SAS W

2026-05-06 SAS 95 @ MIN 133 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

68.1%

All Games

1358 tracked

75.7%

High Conf.

>65% picks

76.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 69.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score