If SAS visited MEM today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.5 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

4.7

113.5

Offensive Rating

117.2

116.3

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.1

Pace

103.7

SAS (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

SAS wins

2026-03-25 SAS 123 @ MEM 98 SAS W

2026-01-06 SAS 105 @ MEM 106 MEM W

2025-12-02 SAS 119 @ MEM 126 MEM W

2025-11-18 SAS 101 @ MEM 111 MEM W

2025-03-01 SAS 130 @ MEM 128 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score