If SAS visited LAL today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.0 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

1.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

115.0

116.3

Defensive Rating

113.8

100.1

Pace

98.3

SAS (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

SAS wins

2026-02-10 SAS 136 @ LAL 108 SAS W

2026-01-07 SAS 91 @ LAL 107 LAL W

2025-12-10 SAS 132 @ LAL 119 SAS W

2025-11-05 SAS 116 @ LAL 118 LAL W

2025-03-17 SAS 109 @ LAL 125 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score