If SAS visited IND today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.9 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

2.1

113.5

Offensive Rating

115.4

116.3

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.1

Pace

100.8

SAS (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

SAS wins

2026-03-21 SAS 119 @ IND 134 IND W

2026-01-02 SAS 123 @ IND 113 SAS W

2024-03-03 SAS 105 @ IND 117 IND W

2023-11-06 SAS 111 @ IND 152 IND W

2023-03-02 SAS 99 @ IND 110 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score