If SAS visited GSW today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.0 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

3.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

114.2

116.3

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.1

Pace

99.4

SAS (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

SAS wins

2026-04-01 SAS 127 @ GSW 113 SAS W

2026-02-11 SAS 126 @ GSW 113 SAS W

2025-11-14 SAS 109 @ GSW 108 SAS W

2025-11-12 SAS 125 @ GSW 120 SAS W

2025-04-09 SAS 114 @ GSW 111 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score