If SAS visited DEN today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.6 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

3.8

113.5

Offensive Rating

118.9

116.3

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.1

Pace

100.7

SAS (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

SAS wins

2026-04-12 SAS 128 @ DEN 118 SAS W

2026-04-04 SAS 134 @ DEN 136 DEN W

2026-03-12 SAS 136 @ DEN 131 SAS W

2025-11-28 SAS 139 @ DEN 136 SAS W

2025-04-02 SAS 113 @ DEN 106 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7145 tracked

75.0%

High Conf.

>65% picks

82.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.0% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score