If SAS visited DAL today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.5 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-1.3

113.5

Offensive Rating

113.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.1

Pace

100.2

SAS (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

SAS wins

2026-04-10 SAS 120 @ DAL 139 DAL W

2026-02-07 SAS 125 @ DAL 138 DAL W

2026-02-05 SAS 135 @ DAL 123 SAS W

2025-10-22 SAS 125 @ DAL 92 SAS W

2025-03-12 SAS 116 @ DAL 126 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score