If SAS visited CLE today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.0 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

9.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

121.0

116.3

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.1

Pace

100.3

SAS (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

SAS wins

2025-12-29 SAS 113 @ CLE 101 SAS W

2025-12-05 SAS 117 @ CLE 130 CLE W

2025-04-04 SAS 114 @ CLE 113 SAS W

2025-03-27 SAS 116 @ CLE 124 CLE W

2024-02-03 SAS 117 @ CLE 101 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score