If SAS visited CHI today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.2 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-1.6

113.5

Offensive Rating

113.2

116.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.1

Pace

103.6

SAS (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

SAS wins

2026-03-30 SAS 114 @ CHI 129 CHI W

2025-11-10 SAS 121 @ CHI 117 SAS W

2025-01-06 SAS 110 @ CHI 114 CHI W

2024-12-05 SAS 139 @ CHI 124 SAS W

2024-01-13 SAS 122 @ CHI 116 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score