If SAS visited CHA today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.3 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-9.1

113.5

Offensive Rating

106.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.1

Pace

98.2

SAS (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

SAS wins

2026-03-14 SAS 102 @ CHA 115 CHA W

2026-01-31 SAS 106 @ CHA 111 CHA W

2025-03-14 SAS 145 @ CHA 134 SAS W

2025-02-07 SAS 116 @ CHA 117 CHA W

2024-01-19 SAS 120 @ CHA 124 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score