If SAS visited BOS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.2 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

9.4

113.5

Offensive Rating

119.5

116.3

Defensive Rating

110.1

100.1

Pace

96.6

SAS (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

SAS wins

2026-03-10 SAS 116 @ BOS 125 BOS W

2026-01-10 SAS 100 @ BOS 95 SAS W

2025-03-29 SAS 121 @ BOS 111 SAS W

2025-02-12 SAS 103 @ BOS 116 BOS W

2024-01-17 SAS 98 @ BOS 117 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score