If SAS visited ATL today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-1.1

113.5

Offensive Rating

113.7

116.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.1

Pace

103.4

SAS (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

SAS wins

2025-12-19 SAS 126 @ ATL 98 SAS W

2025-11-20 SAS 126 @ ATL 135 ATL W

2025-02-05 SAS 126 @ ATL 125 SAS W

2024-12-19 SAS 126 @ ATL 133 ATL W

2024-01-15 SAS 99 @ ATL 109 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score