If SAC visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-2.8

115.9

Offensive Rating

113.5

115.3

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.9

Pace

100.1

SAC (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

SAC wins

2026-03-17 SAC 132 @ SAS 104 SAC W

2026-02-21 SAC 122 @ SAS 139 SAS W

2025-11-16 SAC 110 @ SAS 123 SAS W

2025-03-07 SAC 109 @ SAS 127 SAS W

2024-12-06 SAC 140 @ SAS 113 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score