If SAC visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.3 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-2.7

115.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.3

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.9

Pace

99.5

SAC (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

SAC wins

2026-04-12 SAC 110 @ POR 122 POR W

2026-01-18 SAC 117 @ POR 110 SAC W

2025-12-20 SAC 98 @ POR 93 SAC W

2025-12-18 SAC 133 @ POR 134 POR W

2025-03-27 SAC 107 @ POR 128 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score