If SAC visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.6 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-3.0

115.9

Offensive Rating

114.7

115.3

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.9

Pace

98.3

SAC (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

SAC wins

2026-03-03 SAC 114 @ PHX 103 SAC W

2026-01-02 SAC 102 @ PHX 129 PHX W

2025-11-26 SAC 112 @ PHX 100 SAC W

2025-10-22 SAC 116 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2025-04-13 SAC 98 @ PHX 109 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score