If SAC visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.8 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-0.2

115.9

Offensive Rating

108.9

115.3

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.9

Pace

96.5

SAC (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

SAC wins

2026-03-26 SAC 117 @ ORL 121 ORL W

2026-02-19 SAC 131 @ ORL 94 SAC W

2025-03-29 SAC 91 @ ORL 121 ORL W

2025-02-05 SAC 130 @ ORL 111 SAC W

2024-03-23 SAC 109 @ ORL 107 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score