If SAC visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.0 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-9.4

115.9

Offensive Rating

109.7

115.3

Defensive Rating

119.1

98.9

Pace

99.8

SAC (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

SAC wins

2026-04-03 SAC 113 @ NOP 117 NOP W

2026-03-05 SAC 133 @ NOP 123 SAC W

2026-02-09 SAC 94 @ NOP 120 NOP W

2025-02-13 SAC 133 @ NOP 140 NOP W

2025-02-12 SAC 119 @ NOP 111 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score